SAN ANTONIO — A set of data-driven models has led local leaders to prepare for San Antonio potentially seeing its peak of new coronavirus cases sometime between late-April and mid-May.
That suggestion was offered up by Assistant City Manager Colleen Bridger during Tuesday's daily briefing alongside Mayor Ron Nirenberg and County Judge Nelson Wolff. She said determining that time frame is the result of working with multiple statistical models – including two from UTSA researchers – that will be publicly available starting Wednesday.
In addition, Bridger said the models currently indicate a sizeable range when it comes to predicting the total number of coronavirus cases that Bexar County will end up with: Between 1,100 and more than 10,000. As far as what are the most important datums the city will be working to fine-tune, Bridger said there are two—when the metro will reach its highest case count and what the project total number of cases might be.
“We’re going to use this information to help us continue to make data-driven decisions around how we respond to this pandemic," she said.
The developments come as Nirenberg announced 21 new cases of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), raising the total for the county to 815. The death toll from coronavirus complications remains at 33.
Bridger, who previously served as the top health official in the Alamo City, says the data-mapping being utilized is similar to what is used during hurricane season. Using that analogy, she says they're preparing for current numbers and predictions to remain fluid as time goes on.
She added that the two UTSA models take into account social-distancing practices that are being encouraged nationwide.
Nirenberg, meanwhile, said he and Wolff will look to the data to formulate strategies for slowly re-opening a city that is currently under a stay-home order with various businesses temporarily shut down and many typically-bustling public areas practically empty.
"The numbers do represent people, families, patients, with children, husbands, and wives," he said. "Every single person has a story. This is too important to consider when we talk about social distancing, physical distancing."