SAN ANTONIO — Public Utility Chairman Peter Lake told the public the ERCOT grid is ready for this summer on Wednesday but this time there was also a caveat.
A big caveat.
Lake said the grid is reliable, but there is now not enough "dispatchable" energy to meet projected peak demand during the summer.
The "dispatchable" energy represents all the natural gas, coal, an nuclear power plants that the state has at its disposal. These are energy sources that have been weatherized and can be turned on and off when needed.
This does not, necessarily, mean there will be a problem with the grid. Texas also leads the nation in wind energy production and boasts solar energy generators as well. As long as the wind blows or the sun shines, these "intermittent" resources will make up the difference and keep the lights on.
But Texas can't control when the wind blows and this is the first time the state has been in this position. ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said the state's max projected demand has grown 6,000 megawatts (MW) but the state was able able to add around 800 MW of dispatchable power. Last summer the states highest demand was around 80,000 MW and it's only going to get higher.
"The Texas grid faces a new reality. Data shows that, for the first time, the peak demand for power this summer will exceed the amount we can generate from dispatchable power and we will be relying on renewables to keep the lights on, " Chairman Lake said.
Fortunately, the states solar resources can handle the extra demand during the day. It's the hot Texas evenings and nights that the PUC finds concerning.
"The risk goes up as the sun goes down because it is still hot at 9 p.m., " Lake said. "At that point in the day we will be relying on wind generation. If wind does not pick we will have to rely on our on-demand dispatchable generators and the data is showing us that on our hottest days, under certain circumstances, we won't have enough generation to cover the gap."
ERCOT will need to ask for conservation during these time and Lake said "load shed" was also possible. This means that power companies may need to turn of power to customers for a short time. Neither Lake nor Vega expected this to be a continuous problem but Lake did say there were around 12 days last summer when wind power stayed low.
While Texas needs new power plants to fill the gap, large thermal (dispatchable) power plants have not been built over the last few years. Lake said between 2008 and 2022 the state's on-demand dispatchable power grew only 1.5 percent. He said the population grew 24 percent during that time.
Both Lake and Vega said the Texas Legislature needed to move forward with market reforms that could incentivize companies to build more power plants in Texas.
"We are committed to keeping you, the public, informed on grid conditions throughout what could be a challenging season," Vegas said.