SAN ANTONIO — Remember those energy conservation notices ERCOT issued earlier this summer? San Antonio could see them again as cold weather sets in this winter.
The Public Utility Commission held its 2023 Winter Preparedness Work Session on Friday morning to discuss preparedness with power providers, transition companies and ERCOT executives. Pete Warnken, manager of resource adequacy for ERCOT, said cold winter mornings will pose the greatest challenge, according to their December Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy.
"You will see that the highest-risk period time is in the morning. I'm talking about December here. You will see the risk start to ramp up around 7 a.m. and then culminate at a peak at 8 a.m.," Warken said.
According to the report, there's a 5% risk of ERCOT sending out an Energy Emergency Alert – or EEA – if this winter's temperatures are similar to the last year's.
If, however, Texas sees another winter storm such as last December's Winter Storm Elliott, which brought temperatures down to 16 degrees in San Antonio, there's a 17.89% chance of an EEA going out.
ERCOT expects to see peak energy demand in the winter around 8 a.m. With the energy demand constantly growing in Texas, wind and solar resources are more important than ever before during peak demand times.
Unfortunately, the sun isn't in position to effectively power solar panels until later in the morning, and wind generation starts to drop at the same time. The December report shows the grid may also have just enough dispatchable energy (energy that can be turned on and off) to cover the morning.
But ERCOT officials don't want margins to be that close.
The power grid regulator was also been working to add power to Texas' reserves at the beginning of October.
“Our request to procure capacity in advance of winter is part of our continued commitment to maintain grid reliability and resiliency,” said ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas in an Oct. 2 release. “ERCOT is not projecting energy emergency conditions this winter season, but we want to be prepared and ensure all available tools are readily available if needed.”
There is also a possibility that the December report could be off, but in a good way.
The report estimates that peak grid demand in December could be around 64,755 MW and that the grid will have 66,482 MW of thermal energy (not including wind and solar). However, the report also estimates that an additional 9,389 MW will be unavailable for unexpected reasons, based on historical data over the last three years.
ERCOT Senior Weatherization Program Analyst Brandon Manley said power providers are now facing tougher preparedness standards, and ERCOT has been busy inspecting those providers to make sure those standards have been met. That could lead to fewer equipment issues this winter and fewer MW outages than forecasted.
"The market participants are being very collaborative and responsive to the rule and the guidance that is given from our inspectors. They are resolving these issues when identified," Manley said. "Weatherization inspections are ahead of pace and meeting requirements."
ERCOT will have its own winter weatherization workshop on Oct. 26 to provide any additional answers to power providers.
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