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UT Tyler poll shows Trump, Cruz leading in tight races among Texas voters ahead of Election Day

“The margin of the election will likely determine whether pundits classify Texas as a red state or a battleground state in 2026 and 2028,” Dr. Kenneth Wink said.

TYLER, Texas — A newly released poll from the UT Tyler Center for Opinion Research shows that former President Donald J. Trump and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz have slight leads among Texas voters in their respective races.

In the presidential race, Trump has a five-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among likely voters in Texas. Trump has 51% while Harris has 46% of the vote, according to the pre-election poll. 

The Center for Opinion Research reached a similar result back in June when Trump a five-point lead over President Joe Biden, which was 48% to 43%, with fewer undecided voters closer to the Nov. 5 election, Dr. Kenneth A. Wink, UT Tyler professor and poll director, said.

In 2020, Trump had a 5.6% win over Biden in Texas, which was smaller compared to his 9% win over Hillary Clinton in Texas in 2016, according to the polling center and election data. 

The poll also states that 63% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans believe this election will be a close race. 

“The margin of the election will likely determine whether pundits classify Texas as a red state or a  battleground state in 2026 and 2028,” Wink said. 

In Texas' U.S. Senate race, Cruz is leading against Rep. Colin Allred by 2% among likely voters. The poll shows Cruz with 47% and Allred with 45%. In June, another poll showed Cruz with a 3%-point lead over Allred. 

“Though the race is close, more Republicans than Democrats claim they will be voting on Election Day, and voters who intend to vote on Election Day tend to turn out at rates lower than those who plan to vote early,” Wink said. “However, if Republicans favoring Cruz turn out to vote on Election Day at the same rates of voters who say they intend to early vote, Sen. Cruz could well win by a three to four percentage point margin.” 

Wink also noted that the policy issues that Texans care the most about has changed from June to October. In June, securing the border was the top issue (39%) and that was followed by abortion (15%), and inflation (13%). 

Now in October, abortion has become the top issue to Texas voters with 29% of likely voters listing it as the most important issue. It is then followed by securing the border (24%) and inflation (17%). 

Among those who listed abortion as the top issue, 17% said restricting abortion was the important policy while 12% believed reproductive rights to be the most important, Wink said. 

“Ironically, it seems that the national and state Democratic Party focus on abortion as a winning  issue for the Democrats may have the unintentional effect of mobilizing pro-life voters in Texas,” Wink said. “The Trump lead represents the typical 5%-6% point lead most polls have shown over  the last two months or so for the former President in Texas. The smaller Cruz lead is consistent  with a tightening race for the Senate seat, with voter turnout likely to be the deciding factor in the Senate race.” 

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