AUSTIN, Texas — A new poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin shows where the two major federal elections currently stand in Texas.
The poll, fielded between the dates of Oct. 2 and Oct. 10, shows former President Donald Trump with a five-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, 51% to 46%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 2%, while Libertarian Chase Oliver received 1%.
Trump's five-point edge holds firm from a previous poll commissioned by UT in September, where he led Harris 49% to 44%, with 3% of respondents choosing a third-party candidate and 4% undecided.
A plurality of poll respondents said that their biggest issue this election is the economy and rising prices, with 18% of voters citing it as their biggest issue. Immigration and border security were not far behind, with 16% of respondents citing it as their biggest issue. Immigration was cited by 29% of Republican voters as their biggest issue.
Trump leads Harris on the issues of the economy (51% to 40%), inflation and prices (50% to 39%), immigration and border security (55% to 36%), crime and public safety (50% to 41%), foreign policy (49% to 40%), infrastructure (47% to 40%) and taxes (48% to 41%).
Harris leads Trump on the issues of abortion access (54% to 28%), climate change (46% to 29%), health care (47% to 42%) and gun violence (43% to 42%).
Of likely voters, 37% rated Trump as “extremely conservative” compared to 47% who rated Harris as “extremely liberal.”
While both candidates have made concerted efforts to target moderate voters in the increasingly competitive state, voters’ assessments of Harris and Trump reflect the overall ideological sorting of Texans in the two parties.
Overall, only 9% of likely voters place Trump “in the middle,” while 75% place him on the conservative side of the middle. Comparatively, 17% place Harris in the center, while 72% place her on the liberal side of the ideological spectrum.
Both candidates are understandably up with their own parties, though Harris is slightly higher among Democrats than Trump is with Republicans. Trump is viewed favorably by 87% of likely Republican voters and unfavorably by 9%, while Harris is viewed favorably by 92% of likely Democratic voters and unfavorably by just 4%.
Among independents, both candidates are underwater. Harris is viewed favorably by 30% and unfavorably by 54%, while Trump is viewed favorably by 24% and unfavorably by 64%.
According to the poll, just 9% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans surveyed said they might change their vote in the presidential election.
The race for U.S. Senate
Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads by a slightly larger margin than Trump, edging Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred by seven points, 51% to 44%. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 4%.
The poll found that Cruz’s job approval ratings among key segments of the electorate since August polling has improved, including among Latinos (October: 47% disapprove, 36% approve; August: 55% disapprove, 33% approve); suburban voters (October: 44% disapprove, 46% approve; August: 48% disapprove, 42% approve); and women (October: 44% disapprove, 42% approve; August: 49% disapprove, 37% approve).
Among likely voters, Cruz was viewed as more extreme ideologically than Allred, with 44% of voters rating Cruz as “extremely conservative."
Comparatively, only 26% of likely voters rated Allred as "extremely liberal," along with 15% who rated him a scale below.
The poll also finds Allred up by 12 points with independent voters, but Cruz with increased support in urban areas (down five points, 50% for Allred to 45% for Cruz) and ahead with Hispanic voters, a voting block that backed Beto O'Rourke by almost 30% in the 2018 election.
For a more detailed look at the poll, click here.