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The role the Rio Grande Valley will plan in deciding Texas' next governor

Though they represent a small percentage of Texas’ voter base, the state’s four southernmost counties could help decide who is governor in 2023.

CAMERON COUNTY, Texas — Cameron County is showing up for the 2022 primaries.

Not as much as voters in the south Texas county would for a presidential race, but in a major way for a midterm election year. 

"We're actually seeing a big increase in the turnout during early voting for this cycle," said Remi Garza, elections administrator in Cameron County. "We're thinking it's a combination of more people accessing the polls, but also the interest of the candidates." 

Specifically, the candidates in this year's gubernatorial race, where Republican incumbent Greg Abbott is attempting to secure his party's nomination en route to a potential third term in office. His primary competition: Democrat Beto O'Rourke, who came as close as any Texan in recent decades to turning a U.S. Senate representative seat from the Lone Star State blue in 2018. 

The Rio Grande Valley will play an important role in this race for governor. It's made up of four counties: Starr, Willacy, Hidalgo and Cameron. Hidalgo is the most populous, with Cameron County coming at No. 2, with more than 420,000 residents.

Here, Garza says, busy midterms for Republicans and Democrats is an indicator of big turnout come November. 

"We're expecting an extremely high turnout here in Cameron County," he said. "I wouldn't be surprised that we do surpass 2018, because that was one of the highest gubernatorial elections that we've ever had in Camera County."

Experts say it's certainly become a battleground region.

Clyde Barrow, chair of the political science department at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, said the area matters in the gubernatorial race even though, overall, it accounts for only 3% to 4% of Texas' voter base. 

"It's generally considered important, particularly to Democrats, because, historically, it has been an overwhelmingly Democratic region of the state," Barrow said. "And in a close race, it could be the margin of difference."

Is it possible for a Democrat to be elected  to lead Texas from Austin, something which hasn't happened since Ann Richards in 1991. ? I think it’s 1991. Here’s the reference https://lrl.texas.gov/legeLeaders/governors/govBrowse.cfm

Barrow says it is, but O'Rourke would have to articulate a clear policy in the months to come.

   

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