SAN ANTONIO — Midway through the 2022-23 campaign, the San Antonio Spurs have reached a critical point in their rebuild.
With half of the games in the books, the young players are growing and the team has pulled off a number of impressive performances between the mounting losses. The trade deadline is a month away, and the Spurs will make some choices that could shape the future of the franchise for years to come.
A 13-28 record puts San Antonio on pace for 26 wins on the season; that would be their fewest since they went 20-62 and wound up drafting Tim Duncan. They currently have the worst-rated defense in the league, a bottom-five offense and more teenagers than guys in their 30s. One of their best players in Devin Vassell will miss extended time due to a knee injury. A rising star in Josh Primo was cut from the team after playing just four games, accused of sexual misconduct.
This has been the worst season for the Spurs in some time for a variety of reasons, but the games haven't been all that ugly to watch. The ball moves, they fight hard and they manage to keep things close most nights.
Keldon Johnson and Vassell combine for 40 a game as each is taking a significant step forward in their respective games. Tre Jones, Zach Collins and Romeo Langford are coming into their own, and rookies Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley are making the most of their opportunities.
Jakob Poeltl, Josh Richardson and Doug McDermott are veteran leaders who all average double-figures. There are plenty of rough games, but also plenty of moments where you can see what the Spurs are trying to build here.
That vision is missing pieces and polish, and it's certainly closer to the start of construction than it is to the finished product. GM Brian Wright will be operating with that timeline in mind. He's made trades in the past few years that sent established players out for future-focused returns, and it should surprise nobody if that trend continues for a team that's now in position to gain a whole lot by losing a bit more.
The success they've had this year isn't enough to make the playoffs a realistic goal, but it's just enough to jeopardize the best odds in the most important draft for the franchise in the last two decades. Even with that abysmal, injury-plagued season in 1997, San Antonio needed some luck to leapfrog the Celtics in the draft lottery.
Currently the Spurs are trailing the Pistons, Hornets and Rockets in the race to the bottom. Third or better in the lottery means a 14% chance at the top pick, a 13.4% chance at the second and a 12.7% chance at the third. It may not sound like much, but that big a chance at landing Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson or Amen Thompson is a better result than anything else San Antonio can get. A player of that caliber could help form the foundation of a formidable team, injecting top-end talent and excitement into a rebuild that looks promising in part because the team has committed to it.
The idea of intentionally bottoming out feels icky for a lot of Spurs fans, but they're already halfway there and it's better than the alternative.
Just ask Houston Texans fans. They watched their team play awful ball for the first 90% of the season, then turn around and win two of the last three games to surrender the guaranteed top pick in the upcoming draft for absolutely no good reason. (Could you imagine what NBA teams would be doing this year if there was no lottery and the worst team got Wembanyama? At least five teams would be scoring on their own baskets.)
If the Spurs finish no worse than fourth in the lottery, they'll still have a good shot at a fantastic pick. But what happens if this team continues to get better while others sell at the deadline? What if some of those close losses turn into close wins? In a year like this it could cost you a generational talent, and that would be a real shame for a team like San Antonio that is rebuilding in search of one.
The Spurs front office under Wright has shown a willingness to part with talented players to acquire draft capital. He sent out DeMar DeRozan, Bryn Forbes, Thad Young, Drew Eubanks, Derrick White and Dejounte Murray, and brought back six first-round picks, two first-round pick swaps and four second-round picks.
Hopes that this team would add talent and try to win now should have left rational minds with the last of those trades. That being the case, a few more moves just like it shouldn't hurt nearly as much. Regardless of whether or not trades happen, we'll continue to see the Spurs grow individually and collectively. Gregg Popovich and the players in the locker room are going to go out and try to win as much as they can.
Keldon will work on getting his three-ball back to where it was to begin the season. When Vassell gets back, he'll keep expanding his bag of shot-creation tricks. Tre Jones gets the chance to show what he can do as a starter, and so does Langford. Sochan will continue to start, and make plays, and make mistakes and learn from them. Branham is showing his potential as a three-level scorer while Wesley comes back from an injury. Collins has been looking healthy and comfortable for the first time in a long time. Stanley Johnson has been a nice pickup, and so has Charles Bassey.
There should be a number of teams interested in adding a veteran sniper like McDermott or Richardson. Shooting is always at a premium in the NBA, and these guys are crafty and experienced. McBuckets is hitting over 41% from deep, and he's an underrated cutter and finisher. J-Rich has made 36% of his 3s, and he's averaging 15 points per game while hitting almost 56% from the floor and 39% from range in January.
Would a contending team be willing to give up a future first to lock either of them in for the stretch run? We may soon find out. Richardson's deal is expiring, while McDermott's has another year on it.
Then there's San Antonio's longest-tenured player, Jakob Poeltl. He's 26, averaging 12 points and almost 10 rebounds, 3 assists, a block and a steal per game on an expiring contract. He's even shooting well from the free throw line lately; 67% since mid-November and 21-28 in his last 10 games. His most valuable trait may be his willingness to do the little things and his nuance in executing that directive. He sets screens made of marble and protects the rim better than all but a few centers in the NBA.
Several teams with open title windows could use an upgrade at that position, but the Spurs seem to value Poeltl's ability to compliment the young guys around him and help them grow. If they did wind up with a draft pick like Wemby or Scoot, Big Jak would enhance their skills and help to accelerate a return to relevance for a rebuild that would at that point be cooking with gas.
Poeltl is a solid player, a good dude and a wealth of corporate knowledge. Before the season, Pop even compared his role on the team to Tim Duncan's.
"He's been so consistent, he's such a pro. He does his work night in and night out. Every practice, every shoot around, every game, we all know that," Pop said on media day. "He's a great base. For us, for our group right now, he's what Timmy was during those championship years. A lot of stuff comes from this example on the court, just the way he conducts himself."
Parting with Poeltl would be tough for his coach, teammates and fans alike. He's become an important and beloved part of this team, a true anchor on and off the floor. There's no question losing his presence would result in worse play from the team. The question is if that's the right thing to do or not, and that's been up for debate since the Dejounte Murray trade that was quite similar conceptually.
The difference here is that, much like their record this year, a good deal of the losing has already been done. And if they can bear to lose a bit more, it could result in a franchise-altering win.
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