CHICAGO — The San Antonio Spurs have secured the ninth-overall pick in the upcoming draft after the NBA Draft Lottery in Chicago on Tuesday night.
The Spurs didn't hit the jackpot, but this will still be their highest selection since 25 years ago when they took Tim Duncan with the first overall pick in 1997.
San Antonio had about a 50% chance of getting the ninth pick, and that's right where they stayed on lottery night. They had a 20% chance of moving into the top four, but a 29% chance of moving back.
David Robinson represented the team, and at one point in the broadcast spoke with three of the big men expected to go in the top four. If the Spurs want to pick one of them, they'll need to make a big move and trade up.
"I think we're well positioned. We have an unbelievable team, and I think we're gonna find a great pick at nine," Robinson said after the lottery. "For a minute there you think you're gonna get that number one pick, but I'm actually pretty happy. For us to have a top-ten pick, that's amazing."
"We've done great picking in the top four, but we've also done great picking in the first round. This is a really good pick, it's hard to be disappointed where we are. I think we're gonna find somebody pretty special," he said. "I think there are countless guys who are woefully underrated, and we just have to kind of mine through the field and find those guys."
Lottery FAQ
How does the NBA Draft Lottery work?
Some leagues like the NFL award the best pick in the draft to the team with the worst record in the league, but the NBA does it differently to discourage teams from racing to the bottom. Tanking still happens, but the odds of getting a top pick get flattened out quite a bit.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are a prime example of a team who has leaned into having a bad roster, where accumulating losses gives them a better chance at a high pick to improve that roster eventually. They finished the season 24-58, and they only have a 12.5% chance at the top pick because three teams were worse.
The Rockets (20-62), Magic (22-60), and Pistons (23-59) will all have a 14% chance at the top pick.
This system gives any team that missed the playoffs a chance at cracking the top four, and the Spurs once again have their best chance of doing that since they drafted Tim Duncan.
What are the Spurs' odds of getting into the top four?
San Antonio has a 20.2% chance of cracking the top four, and perhaps this number between 20 and 21 will be lucky for San Antonio.
The individual picks are broken down like this:
- 1st: 4.5%
- 2nd: 4.8%
- 3rd: 5.2%
- 4th: 5.7%
A one in five chance certainly isn't a guarantee, but it's not exactly a long shot either. It's like finding the one dentist out of five who happens to recommend the other toothpaste.
What's the most likely outcome?
The Spurs had a 50.7% chance at landing the ninth pick in the draft. It would be a bit disappointing given the possibilities of the evening, but that would still be the team's best pick since Tim Duncan.
After missing the playoffs a few years in a row, the Spurs selected Devin Vassell with the eleventh pick in 2020 and Josh Primo with the twelfth pick in 2021.
Can the Spurs move backward in the order?
Yes, part of the deal with the possibility of moving up is that you can also move down. Only fair right?
The Spurs had a 29% chance of moving back from ninth, broken down like this:
- 10th: 25.9%
- 11th: 3.0%
- 12th: 0.1%
- 13th: almost impossible
What are the Spurs doing for good luck?
Representing the Spurs tonight was the team's first ever first-overall pick, David Robinson.
San Antonio won the 1987 Draft Lottery, and selected The Admiral out of Navy even though they'd have to wait as he served in the Navy for two years.
Who are some of the top players in the 2022 draft class?
Most mock drafts have settled on a clear picture of the four players at the top of the draft boards. Three of them fit a clear positional need for the Spurs, but San Antonio would need to make a surprising trade to get one of them at this point. The order will be up for much debate in the coming weeks ahead of draft day on June 23 in Brooklyn.
Paolo Banchero is a big wing out of Duke with a diverse and crisp scoring skillset and already looks like he will be a problem for NBA defenses. At 6'10" and 250 pounds, he looks physically built for the next level as well. There's a little Seattle connection with Dejounte Murray as well.
Auburn's Jabari Smith is another 6'10" forward who can score in a variety of ways. The son of NBA player Jabari Smith Sr., he hit 42% of his threes, has the ability to make tough mid-range shots, can finish at the rim and defend multiple positions on the perimeter. He has the physical tools to continue improving in the paint on both ends, and would fit neatly with these Spurs at the four.
Chet Holmgren from Gonzaga may be the most polarizing draft prospect in recent memory. He's a rare breed of two-way player at seven feet tall who genuinely does a bit of everything on all 94 feet of court. He hit 42% from deep, can put the ball on the deck and finish with either hand at an absurd efficiency, and cover a lot of ground on defense as well, averaging 3.6 blocks per game. He's a certified beanpole at just 195 pounds, and his doubters question his ability to deal with physicality against the grown men of the NBA. Weight room is a must, but his ability is special.
Jaden Ivey of Purdue is the lone guard of the group, an explosive slasher who can stretch the floor a bit and get downhill both in transition and in halfcourt sets. His fit in San Antonio might be a bit redundant, but if he's the best player available putting him on this run and gun Spurs team might be a prudent move.
More on all of these guys and other top prospects in the next few weeks, I promise.