FRISCO, Texas — There are several potential outcomes for Jerry Jones and Mike McCarthy. The most overlooked possibility is McCarthy coaching the Cowboys for the final three games of the season and entertaining offers to coach elsewhere.
Jones has hired every head coach in franchise history except for Tom Landry and has been present for the beginning and end of all the others.
Only Jimmy Johnson left willingly. McCarthy probably won’t be the next.
Unless some other NFL team owner has already indirectly whispered interest.
The reality is this: If Jones believes his own public appraisal of McCarthy’s performance, the Cowboys owner should extend his contract sometime before the end of the season to prevent the head coach from completing his contract and becoming a free agent.
That would preclude teams with head coaching vacancies like the Jets, Bears and Saints from making direct contact with McCarthy or agent Don Yee about their potential interest or making a financial offer more attractive than Jones is prepared to make — assuming that’s what he eventually does.
A source told me to expect Jones to wait as long as possible to allow for a more holistic evaluation. The Cowboys are 6-8 with three games remaining, all against NFC playoff contenders: Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and Washington. The Buccaneers and Eagles lead their respective divisions.
So three more defeats could be coming, which could change how Jones and his advisors view the performance of McCarthy and the coaching staff. In 18 seasons as an NFL head coach, McCarthy has never lost more than 10 games in a season. In three weeks, the Cowboys could finish at 6-11.
McCarthy has handled a difficult and frustrating season with extraordinary professionalism — knowing he had to win and consistently losing so many of his best players. Five of the team’s seven highest-paid players, including quarterback Dak Prescott, are currently on injured reserve and have missed a significant number of games.
Remarkably, the Cowboys prevailed decisively on the road and with a shortened week of preparation Sunday against the lowly Panthers while playing 13 undrafted players. Seven were on the field for undrafted Cooper Rush’s touchdown pass to Jalen Brooks.
“I think it reflects on the fact that we’ve been kicking a** in the eighth round,” McCarthy said while laughing. “It’s part of our draft and develop program. I’m just proud of those guys. I think it’s all an example of, it’s not where you started. You just keep working and you’re opportunity comes. I think they’ve clearly taken advantage of it. I think that’s awesome.”
That is just one example of how McCarthy has been forced to adjust this season. Starting a 10th different offensive line combination in that same game and running for 200 yards — a first for a McCarthy-coached Dallas team on the road — is yet another.
On his weekly appearance on 105.3 The Fan, Jones addressed the upcoming decision regarding McCarthy and his coaching staff, all of whom have three weeks remaining on their contracts, including defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. Jones was asked if he views McCarthy and Zimmer as a joint entity.
“In a way I do,” Jones said. “Especially after the last ball games. I think you’re seeing the best of Mike Zimmer. I should say you’re getting to see some of the best, and maybe the best is still ahead of us. It’s been really impressive [with] the attrition we’ve had and the availability of our players. I give him that.”
Then, Jones offered his point of view on McCarthy. “Mike, I don’t know how you cannot say that his team has shown it can handle adversity and that he can get you there with the injury situation impacting the availability of those players,’’ Jones said. “I hate to keep repeating that, but it’s so obvious, and yet, to have that team playing at the level they’re playing. I give both [McCarthy and Zimmer] high grades this year.”
That seems appropriate considering their respective hardships. McCarthy has been coaching without his franchise quarterback. Zimmer has overcome losses at the two most important defensive positions: edge rusher and cornerback. Defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence and cornerback Trevon Diggs on are IR, DaRon Bland was through Week 10 and Micah Parsons missed four games with his first NFL injury.
Jones has known from the beginning that denying McCarthy a contract extension following three consecutive 12-5 seasons would make the owner the central figure in a drama that would end only when he decided it would.
With existing uncertainty about McCarthy’s future, Jones would benefit from the intrigue as he would be asked his opinion every week of the season, especially following losses.
There have been some embarrassing losses, and historic defeats — especially during the 0-5 start at home this season. The Cowboys have losses to the 12-win Eagles and Lions, to the 9-win Ravens and Texans, to the 7-win Falcons, the 6-win 49ers and 5-win Saints.
While the Cowboys have defeated two likely playoff teams in the Steelers and Commanders, the opposing quarterbacks in their six victories make up a mostly unimpressive list consisting of Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, Jayden Daniels, Drew Lock and Bryce Young.
Perhaps Jones’ recent praise might be a recognition of his own failure in disguise. Maybe Jones knows he undermined McCarthy with a poor roster and then made the situation even worse by refusing to commit to McCarthy, potentially believing the added pressure would be beneficial.
It worked the first time Jones tried it with Jason Garrett but failed the second time, which led to McCarthy being hired.
In total, McCarthy has four losing seasons in his head-coaching career. In two of those — 2017 Green Bay and 2020 Dallas — it was the result of being without his starting quarterback as he has been this season.
The only thing McCarthy can’t seem to do with any regularity is win postseason games and overcome the loss of his quarterback. Both flaws have been apparent across his five seasons with the Cowboys.
McCarthy and Zimmer have endured unimaginable adversity and have kept the players focused on winning. We have yet to see any quit in this team, their own ability as coaches helped by a roster full of veterans seeking their own next contract and free agents hoping to establish themselves.
Earlier this season, Jones shared his criteria for determining whether a coaching change is necessary, saying, “My criteria has always been, 'How we're playing. Do we have an edge? Are we fundamentally competitive? Are we competitive when we're down?' Those kinds of things.’’
Considering that, here are some questions Jones must resolve over the next few weeks:
Is McCarthy, as the head coach and offensive play-caller, providing his team a consistent advantage?
Does this structure of the team and its play style create the best chance for the postseason success that has eluded McCarthy in Dallas?
If not, is there someone Jones could hire who would be superior in that regard?
Is McCarthy worth whatever multi-year commitment he will be seeking after being forced to work the final year of his contract as almost never happens to such an accomplished head coach, much less a Super Bowl winner who won 36 games in three years?
Jones has honored his promise not to make a coaching change during the season, something he’s done just once in his three decades as the owner.
Now 82, Jones has only three weeks to determine whether there is an organizational reset that requires hiring the 10th head coach in franchise history.
Unless McCarthy decides for him.
McCarthy has coached 81 games with the Cowboys. Only the next three are guaranteed.
