DALLAS — Hurricane Helene significantly damaged parts of Florida, Georgia, The Carolinas and Tennessee this past week. As people are still recovering and assessing the damage, another storm is brewing in The Gulf of Mexico this week.
Kirk? Leslie? Milton?
A disturbance currently in the southern Caribbean will slowly move northward into the Gulf of Mexico during the first week of October. As it moves northward or after it enters the Gulf of Mexico, it could become the next tropical depression or tropical storm. Right now, it has a 40% chance of developing in the next 7 days.
"Kirk" ended up forming out in the middle of the Atlantic ocean, so the next names on the list are "Leslie" and "Milton". It looks like another storm may form out in the Atlantic that could get the name Leslie. Which means IF this storm forms, Milton may end up being the name.
However, we are still multiple days out from a storm forming or getting its act together, so the exact track, intensity, etc. will be worked out this week.
Our computer models will continue to struggle with this storm until it becomes more organized, if it does at all. At a minimum, rainfall will increase for parts of the Gulf Coast with favored areas being the eastern half of the Gulf. At a maximum, a storm could from, which would bring rain, wind, and storm surge to parts of the Gulf Coast states.
What about Texas?
October typically does not bring much tropical activity to Texas. In fact, only 6 hurricanes or tropical storms have made landfall in Texas during October on record (records go back to the 1800s). The overall pattern usually doesn't favor significant tropical systems moving into Texas. With this next storm potential in the Gulf, is it possible Texas could see a storm? Yes. Is it very likely? Not at this point.
This tropical disturbance is actually occurring in a very common area for the month of October. Favored areas of formation are in the southern/western Caribbean, eastern Gulf of Mexico, and off the East Coast of the U.S. And usually tracks are north/northeastward from that point.
